4th May 2019
Expanded Analysis for End the Chaos Article: 'How to tactically vote Remain in the Euro Elections'
The only regional polling we currently have is a YouGov analysis commissioned by HOPE not hate, which has the following MEP predictions per region:
Table 2: Yougov poll commissioned for HOPE not hate. Sample size 5,412. Fieldwork 23rd-26th April. Excludes Northern Ireland.
Using the regional cross-breaks (shown below in Table 3) I have made hypothetical predictions of the order MEPs will be elected in through D'Hondt in each region. Then, I share my recommendation on what – based on this data – a hypothetical remain-supporting voter (who wanted to cast their ballot purely on the Brexit issue) would be tactically advised to:
North-East (3 MEPs): Clear remain parties have no chance of gaining an MEP in this small region. The best advice would be to vote Labour in the hope of depriving the Brexit Party of its second seat.
North-West (8 MEPs): This region is predicted to be dominated by the Brexit Party and Labour, with the Greens picking up a single seat. From a remain perspective, Lib Dems should vote for ChUK who might be able to pip the Brexit Party for the region's final D'Hondt seat.
Yorkshire and the Humber (6 MEPs): The clear remain parties are again unhelpfully split. If ChUK voters voted Green and Lib Dem in roughly equal proportions, clearly remain parties could win one, possibly two, seats.
East Midlands (5 MEPs): The Greens and ChUK are close to winning a seat. If Lib Dem supporters voted for one or the other, there would be a good chance of them taking the final regional seat from the Brexit Party.
West Midlands (7 MEPs): The final three seats in this region could be very close, with polling currently suggesting they will be taken by the Brexit Party, Labour, and the Conservatives, with ChUK and the Greens falling just short. Thus, the Lib Dems voting for ChUK or Green could potentially sneak these parties over the line.
East England (7 MEPs): ChUK are forecast to win a seat, so a tactical consideration here would be for Lib Dems to vote Green to challenge Labour for the region's seventh seat.
London (8 MEPs): In the strongest remain region, all three clear Remain parties are due to win one MEP. However, ChUK should fight hard to win a second, because current polling has them just behind the Brexit Party for capital's the eighth D'Hondt seat.
South East (10 MEPs): The situation is relatively similar to London in that all three clear Remain parties are due to win one seat. As with London, ChUK is the likeliest to challenge for a second, where a strong showing might give them the region's tenth seat at the expense of the Brexit Party or the Conservatives.
South West (6 MEPs): The Greens are forecast to win an MEP in this region, but the sixth seat is likely to be close. If ChUK supporters vote Lib Dem, polling suggests the latter would have a chance of taking the sixth seat from the Brexit Party.
Wales (4 MEPs): Supporters of all three clear Remain parties could vote for Plaid Cymru who are closely challenging the Brexit Party for the fourth D'Hondt seat.
Scotland (6 MEPs): The SNP's is tipped for a dominant performance here, potentially winning four of the six seats. The only way Scotland could be made still better from a Remain perspective would be for Lib Dem and ChUK supporters to vote Green, who might potentially challenge Labour for a seat.
Table 3: Yougov poll commissioned for HOPE not hate. Sample size 5,412. Fieldwork 23rd-26th April. Excludes Northern Ireland.